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Kremlin May Remove Forces From Hungary : U.S. Official Reports ‘Increasing Indications’ of Unilateral Pullout of Some or All Soviet Troops

Times Staff Writer

A senior State Department official said Friday the United States has received “increasing indications” that the Soviet Union may unilaterally pull some or all of its 65,000 troops out of Hungary, where they have been stationed since they crushed a revolt in 1956.

A Soviet troop cut announcement, rumored for more than a year, could come next week at a summit meeting in Warsaw of Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev and leaders of the Warsaw Pact nations.

Gennady I. Gerasimov, the Kremlin’s chief foreign affairs spokesman, told The Times during a visit to Los Angeles on Friday that he would “neither confirm nor deny” the U.S. view that a “possible announcement of withdrawals of Soviet forces from Hungary” is imminent.

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To Avoid Surprise

The State Department official acknowledged that the well-hedged U.S. statement, provided to several reporters, was designed to take the element of surprise out of the Soviet move if it occurs.

Among the indications that a Soviet announcement is coming was the hope--expressed publicly this week in Moscow by Hungary’s new Communist Party leader, Karoly Grosz--that his country would be the first beneficiary in Eastern Europe of any new conventional arms reduction agreement. Grosz made the comment after having been warmly received by Gorbachev.

Any withdrawal will be welcome, the U.S. official said. But he added that the West will be interested in whether the four divisions of Soviet forces are withdrawn a short or long distance into the Soviet Union, whether they are demobilized, and what state of readiness they maintain, if they are not broken up.

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Another senior government official, who also declined to be named, predicted that the Soviet withdrawal, if it occurs, will be partial rather than total, and will consist of “more than one or two divisions.” The Soviets have withdrawn one or two divisions from Eastern Europe in the past “without getting much attention,” this official added.

The U.S. statement on a Soviet pullout may have been based in part on secret intelligence information, such as intercepted communications. But there is no sign that Soviet forces in Hungary, which include support and air force units, have been ordered to pack up and move out, according to another official.

The potential Soviet move would begin to erase one of the most odious remnants of Soviet Cold War actions as well as serve current Soviet interests.

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These include promoting Gorbachev’s desire to maintain the general momentum of arms reductions into the next U.S. administration, officials said. More specifically, they added, it would increase expectations in Western Europe that deep cuts in armaments will result from the new East-West conventional force “stability talks” that could get under way this fall.

Encouragement for Reforms

A Soviet pullout also would encourage Eastern European Communist states to undertake economic and political reforms parallel to the Soviet changes Gorbachev has urged. Reformers in those countries may be more willing to take risks if the shadow of the Red Army is removed.

Hungary already has adopted some of the reforms now being considered by the Soviet Union. By singling out Hungary for the first Soviet troop withdrawals, Gorbachev would appear to be blessing past changes as well as endorsing Grosz’s replacement last month of the aging party chief Janos Kadar, who was seen as an impediment to change.

Finally, Hungary is somewhat less important strategically to the Soviets. It is not on the “central front,” opposite Germany, through which the classic invasion routes run, and it borders on two Warsaw Pact and two neutral nations, rather than on any North Atlantic Treaty Organization state.

The U.S. official said there are no signs that Soviet troops would be pulled out of Czechoslovakia, which they invaded in 1968 to crush the reforms of the so-called “Prague Spring.” Ironically, at least some of the moves begun by since-deposed Czechoslovak leader Alexander Dubcek then are similar to the reforms now sponsored by Gorbachev.

But the current Prague government is among the most reluctant of Soviet allies to undertake reforms. One U.S. authority joked that Soviet troops may be needed in Czechoslovakia in the future “to impose Gorbachev reforms.”

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Intelligence Community View

The one-page U.S. statement, titled “Possible announcement of withdrawals of Soviet forces from Hungary,” appears to be primarily the product of the U.S. intelligence community. The State Department does not necessarily share in its conclusions, although its officials did not contest any of the indications that a Soviet move might be near.

The statement said that “we have increasing indications that the Soviets may be contemplating an early decision to pull forces out of Hungary.” For 18 months, there have been rumors of a unilateral withdrawal “outside the framework of, and even in advance of, the new conventional arms control negotiations” due this fall, it said.

Warning that the withdrawal may turn out to be a sham, the statement recalled that in August, 1980, the Soviets claimed a unilateral withdrawal of 1,000 tanks and 20,000 troops from East Germany. But “within three years Soviet personnel levels in Eastern Europe had been restored to previous levels,” and subsequent additions of artillery and armor in East Germany “left the Soviets with greater combat power than before,” it said.

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