Recession Warning

In “While the City Spins Out of Control” (Opinion, June 2), Mike Davis incorrectly asserts that the current recession came as a complete surprise to California forecasters. He says that “ . . . Los Angeles is plunging into a recession that all our court astrologers claim was impossible. Last year, the UCLA econometric model was still predicting an endless summer. . . . Now we know the two mainsprings of our economy--real estate and aerospace--have gone haywire.”

To my knowledge, no economic forecaster based in California has ever claimed that California or Los Angeles is recession-proof.

It certainly is ironic to cite the UCLA Business Forecasting Project in this regard; we warned of an impending recession in our June, 1990, forecast report, specifically because of cutbacks in aerospace and construction. Similarly, my Op-Ed piece in The Times in May, 1990, discussed the importance of aerospace to the state’s economy, which I thought was being understated.

True, economic forecasting is a difficult business and we sometimes make mistakes. However, we saw this one coming and the record shows it. Before he accuses someone of blowing it, especially in such a snide manner, Davis should get his facts straight.

DAVID HENSLEY, Director, UCLA Business Forecasting Project