THE TIMES POLL : Clinton Holds Big Lead Over Bush; Perot Fades

Heading into the upcoming gantlet of presidential debates, Democrat Bill Clinton holds a wide lead over President Bush, while Ross Perot draws little support, a new nationwide Times Poll has found.

With the election less than a month away, 48% of those polled say they back Clinton, 34% are for Bush and just 9% support Perot, according to the survey. One in 11 voters say they are still undecided.

The poll shows Clinton assembling an especially broad coalition: He leads Bush and Perot among men and women, among blacks and whites and among all income, education and age groups. At the same time, the President is still struggling to consolidate his base: Four years ago, he won 92% of Republicans; in the latest survey, he is drawing just two-thirds.

Perot, who announced his independent candidacy last Thursday, returns to the race under a cloud. Despite his claims to the contrary, more than three-fourths of those polled say they believe that the Texas businessman, not his volunteers, make the important decisions in his campaign. Just 15% of those surveyed have a positive impression of Perot, whereas fully 66% view him negatively; among that latter group, two-thirds expressed very negative feelings toward him.

That level of disdain dwarfs the negative sentiment various polls recorded toward such controversial figures as the Rev. Jesse Jackson, TV commentator Patrick J. Buchanan or even Gary Hart after he returned to the 1988 presidential race amid accusations of extramarital affairs.

Only 23% of those who say they supported Perot before he decided against declaring his candidacy in July back him now. By contrast, 45% of his former supporters prefer Clinton, and 24% prefer Bush.

The Times Poll, supervised by John Brennan, was conducted from Friday through Monday; it surveyed 1,833 adults, including 1,545 registered voters, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Two-thirds of those polled say the presidential debates beginning Sunday night will be important to their decision. But that number may be inflated somewhat by expectations of civic responsibility; in other respects, the poll suggests that support is hardening. Slightly more than three-fourths of Clinton supporters and nearly four-fifths of Bush backers say their decisions are certain, as do nearly three-fifths of those now backing Perot.

Above all, the poll testifies to the continuing power of economic dissatisfaction as the defining force in the election.

Over the past several months, Bush has repeatedly tried to shift voters’ attention away from his economic record--opening a debate about family values, attempting to pin blame for the recession on Congress and raising questions about Clinton’s trustworthiness on such issues as his efforts to avoid military service during the Vietnam War.

But the poll suggests that those issues have had little impact on the campaign’s basic dynamic. The new poll numbers show that remarkably little has changed since last spring: Americans remain overwhelmingly dissatisfied with the nation’s direction and unshaken, so far, in their determination to take out their discontent on the incumbent.

Bush’s attempts to make his Democratic rival the issue have had only partial success. Voter doubts about Clinton are rising, the poll found. But such concerns do not appear powerful enough to overcome the unhappiness with the nation’s direction--or concerns about Bush himself.

Clinton’s favorable-to-unfavorable ratio has slipped to the point where it virtually matches the public assessment of Democrat Michael S. Dukakis at this point in his unsuccessful 1988 campaign against Bush. In the new survey, 40% viewed Clinton unfavorably; that represented a substantial increase from early August, when only 26% of those polled had a negative impression of him. Over the same period, the percentage of voters with a favorable impression of the Democrat edged down from 57% to 54%.

Voters’ assessments of Clinton’s honesty eroded over that period too: In the latest survey, those polled endorsed his integrity by a 55%-27% margin. In early August, the endorsement had been by a wider 56%-18% count.

But voters’ doubts about Bush’s integrity also have been rising, amid media reports that have raised new questions about his role in the Iran-Contra scandal. Overall, 53% of those polled have a negative impression of Bush, whereas just 45% assess him positively. In the new survey, voters back Bush’s honesty by 59% to 34%; two months ago, he posted a more unequivocal 66%-26% mark on that measure.

These twin questions of credibility--Clinton’s handling of his draft status and Bush’s involvement in the Iran-Contra scandal--appear to be largely neutralizing each other. Three-fourths of those polled say the draft issue will have no effect on their vote; 62% say the same about the Iran-Contra scandal.

That collective shrug is another testament to the voters’ focus on the economy. Asked what issues they wanted to hear the candidates address, 66% said the economy or unemployment; 18% said health care and 17% said the federal budget deficit.

As throughout the year, Bush draws his support primarily from those satisfied with the nation’s economy and basic direction. But that is a small group.

All year, the percentage of Americans saying the country is on the wrong track has remained at heights reminiscent of 1980, when widespread anxiety doomed President Jimmy Carter to a landslide defeat. In the latest survey, 76% of those polled say the country is on the wrong track. In a gale that strong, Clinton doesn’t have to row very hard: 57% of voters dissatisfied with the nation’s direction support him, 23% support Bush and 11% back Perot.

Only 17% of the electorate says the country is on the right track. Seven in 10 of that smaller group supports Bush, contrasted with slightly less than one in six for Clinton and less than one in 16 for Perot.

Likewise, half of those polled consider the nation to be in a serious recession: 61% of them support Clinton, contrasted with just 20% for Bush and 10% for Perot. Slightly more than one-fourth call the recession moderate; they give Clinton a slim edge over Bush, with Perot lagging. The remaining one-fourth who consider the recession to be mild--or over--give Bush almost half of their votes.

Hoping to win back voters dissatisfied with the economy, Bush has implicitly asked Americans to judge him primarily on his proposals for a second term. That agenda, though, seems to offer him little advantage.

More than half of those surveyed have no opinion on the North American Free Trade Agreement that Bush will initial today in Texas with leaders from Canada and Mexico; the remainder split almost evenly between supporters and opponents. And by a modest margin, voters say an across-the-board tax cut--as Bush recently proposed--would hurt, rather than help, the economy.

Perhaps most dramatically, many voters appear to have dismissed the GOP’s focus on the threat to American families posed by a decline in “traditional values.” By a solid 50% to 30%, voters say families are strained more “by an economic climate that makes finding jobs and affordable health care difficult” than by “a moral climate that endangers community standards.”

Those who believe that the threats to families are primarily economic back Clinton over Bush by 61% to 22%; those who see moral threats as the most severe prefer the President by 57% to 23%.

That finding tracks with Clinton’s overall advantage on measures of economic competence and empathy. The Democrat leads Bush and Perot--44% to 27% to 19%, respectively--when voters are asked which candidate would do the best job promoting economic prosperity. Likewise, Clinton leads Bush and Perot by 49% to 24% to 13% as the candidate most concerned about the problems of average Americans.

On the broadest measure--which candidate “can do the best job bringing the changes America needs”--Clinton’s lead is also substantial: 46% give him the nod, 30% support Bush and 13% back Perot.

The unhappiness with Bush’s performance has allowed Clinton to make dramatic inroads with groups the Republicans have long dominated in presidential politics.

Since 1952, only one Democrat--Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964--has outpolled his GOP opponent among whites; whites now favor Clinton over Bush by 9 percentage points. Similarly, Johnson is the only Democrat over that period to carry self-described independents; Clinton now leads Bush by 10 points among independents. Four years ago, independents provided Bush with a 13-point advantage.

Clinton even leads Bush narrowly among white men; four years ago, Bush carried 62% of white men, according to network exit polls. Bush carried two-thirds of white Protestants that year--about half the electorate; now they narrowly prefer Clinton.

Is any of this set in stone? The bad news for Republicans is that the remaining undecided voters are no more favorable toward Bush than toward Clinton. Moreover, estimates of the rate of turnout have very little effect on the margin: Clinton holds a comparable lead in models that revise the poll for high and low turnouts.

The sliver of good news for the GOP is that despite the high percentage of voters who say they are certain in their choice, 43% of those surveyed say they “need to know more about Clinton” before deciding whether he would make a good President. On the other hand, an overwhelming 86% say they already have enough information about Bush. That is not helpful for an incumbent when just 34% of those surveyed approve of his job performance--and 62% give him failing grades.

As for Perot, voters are split evenly on whether they need more information about him--but in other respects they appear to have rendered their judgments on the mercurial Texas billionaire. Nearly three-fourths of those polled say he should have stayed out of the race. Just 15% say Perot “has the kind of stable temperament a President needs”; 55% say he does not.

Asked in an open-ended question why they dislike Perot, 37% of those with a negative opinion labeled him a quitter; 18% said he had no plans for the country; 7% called him an “oddball.” Those who like him predominantly cited his economic proposals.

At this point, at least, Perot’s impact on the race is as slight as his overall vote: He is drawing his support evenly from both of the major contenders.

UNCONVENTIONAL KICKOFF: Perot began his campaign with a 30-minute commercial. A13

Perot’s Impact: Clinton Still Holds Big Lead

The entry of Ross Perot has not changed the contours of the presidential race, a Times Poll found. Though he claimed nearly a third of the support in July, Perot now gets only 9%.

If the election were today and the candidates were Bill Clinton, George Bush and Ross Perot, for whom would you vote? Clinton: 48% Bush: 34% Perot: 9% Don’t know: 9% *

Why do you think Ross Perot entered the presidential race? To get his program discussed: 23% Doesn’t want to be seen as a quitter: 17% To help another candidate win: 17% Attention seeking/egotistical: 13% Sincerely wants to win: 6% To shake things up: 2% Dislikes Bush: 1% Playing a game: 1% Other: 6% Don’t know: 14% *

Do you think Perot has the stable temperament a President needs?

Oct. 5 July 9 Yes 15% 35% No 55% 25% Don’t know 30% 40%

*

Do you favor or oppose the free trade agreement between Mexico and the United States? Favor: 23% Oppose: 24% Don’t know: 53% Sources: Los Angeles Times Poll taken Oct. 2-5 of 1,833 adults nationwide, including 1,545 registered voters. The margin or error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,833 adults nationwide, including 1,545 registered voters, by telephone, from Oct. 2-5. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that listed and unlisted numbers had an opportunity to be contacted. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and household size. The margin of sampling error for the total samples of adults and registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups, the error margin is somewhat higher. Poll results may also be influenced by factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.