Protestants’ Ranks Growing Gray : Many Churches Are Failing in the Struggle to Attract Young Adults, Reports Find

NEW YORK —  Mainline Protestantism is graying rapidly, and two denominational studies show little hope that significant numbers of young adults will replace their elders in the pews.

Just 13% of the members of the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) are between 18 and 34 years old, compared to 36% of this country’s adult population. And one-third of Presbyterians are 65 or older, nearly double the percentage of older Americans.

Similar findings were reported in the United Methodist Church, where a recent profile showed the percentage of church members 50 and older has risen from 49% in 1986 to 61% in 1994.

Some churches are attracting younger members, said the Rev. Mearle Griffith, a research director for the United Methodist Church. “But if I simply look at the data,” he said, “there is not much hope for the future.”

A 1994 Gallup Poll showed Protestants in general have a higher percentage of older members. Forty-two percent of people identifying themselves as Protestant were 50 and older, compared to 32% of Roman Catholics in that age group.

But nowhere have sociologists found the trend more pronounced than in mainline Protestant churches, which have had the greatest difficulty holding on to their younger members.

You just have to walk into a typical church to see how older members outnumber young adults in the pews, Griffith said.

“You see it in the data. You also see it in every place you go in the ministry,” he said.

In 1957, the Gallup Poll showed that 40% of United Methodists were 50 or older. In the church’s own surveys, it has found the percentage of members 50 and older had risen to 49% in 1986 and 57% in 1990 before climbing to 61% last year.

The average age of United Methodist laity is 55, with a third of the members age 66 or older.

The one hopeful sign, according to the church report, is a slight increase in the last five years in the percentage of clergy who are 30 to 34 years old.

In a recent report in Monday Morning, a magazine for Presbyterian leaders, the church’s research department reported that a 1993 Presbyterian Panel survey showed a third of the denomination’s membership is at least 65, compared to 17% of the general adult population.

The age imbalance is even greater among men. While 40% of church members 65 and older are men, only 31% of church members ages 18 to 34 are men. And while in the overall population there are 101 men for every 100 women between the ages of 18 and 34, there are only 44 men for every 100 women belonging to Presbyterian churches in that age group.

In the short term, the large number of older members will not translate into sharp declines in membership, said Jack Marcum, a Presbyterian researcher.

But if the trend does not change over the next 20 to 30 years, he said, the church could experience much more rapid membership drops.

“In the long term, that looks pretty serious,” he said.