Better Job Prospects Ahead, Survey Shows

CHICAGO — Americans can expect better job prospects in the fourth quarter, particularly if they work in durable goods manufacturing and the wholesale and retail trades, according to a recent survey by Manpower Inc.

Growth in hiring is “steady” and not in danger of becoming overheated, Manpower Chief Executive Mitchell Fromstein said. “We don’t see heavy pressures for wage increases,” he said, referring to the observations of Manpower staff members and not to the quarterly survey, which did not examine wages. “Part of that comes from having inflation controlled.”

In its most recent quarterly phone survey, Manpower asked employers at more than 16,000 U.S. firms if they intended to increase or reduce staffing during the fourth quarter. One out of four said they planned for an increase, the same ratio as last year. But only 9% said they would cut staffing, compared with 10% for the 1995 period. That means a net hiring figure of 16 for the fourth quarter, down from 15 in the year-ago period.

“There’s a slowdown in downsizing that appears in between the lines here--a steady drop in the number of companies saying they’re going to reduce their work force,” Fromstein said.

The two most favorable hiring forecasts were in the wholesale and retail trade sector and in durable-goods manufacturing. That is significant in that indicates strength in both capital goods and retail products, Fromstein noted.

Thirty-six percent of companies in wholesale and retail trades said they planned to add staffing, compared with just 7% who said they would use fewer workers. That is the most optimistic holiday-season forecast in 13 years.

Similarly, the durable goods sector reported a net hiring figure of 19, well above the overall figure of 16. Twenty-eight percent of companies said they would add staffing, compared with 9% that planned to downsize.

Sectors expected to fare less well are public administration, construction, and transportation and public utilities, although all three anticipate growth.

The public administration sector shows a net hiring figure of just 3, as 15% of companies planned to add staffing and 12% planned to make cuts. This may indicate a trend among government agencies to do most of their hiring in the summer, the report said.

The construction and transportation and public utilities sectors also showed growth rates below the overall figure.

Manpower operates 2,200 temporary-help offices worldwide.