Latest Budget Surplus Estimate Approaches $2 Trillion

WASHINGTON — The projected budget surpluses just keep growing and growing. President Clinton on Thursday estimated a $1.9-trillion bounty over the next decade--a figure that he said could eliminate the publicly held federal debt by 2010 if there are only moderate tax cuts and modest increases in spending.

President-elect George W. Bush has said he wants to use $1.3 trillion of any surpluses over the next 10 years for tax cuts that he contends would stimulate a slowing economy.

Clinton declined to pass judgment on Bush’s proposals but said there are “huge economic benefits” of following “a long-term responsible budget policy.”

The $1.9-trillion surplus estimate for fiscal years 2002 through 2011 contrasts with a $1.5-trillion predicted surplus last summer when the White House budget office last released its 10-year projections--but the figure then was for an earlier period, 2001 to 2010.

Both figures exclude the big surpluses building in Social Security and Medicare accounts that will be needed as a population bubble of post-World War II baby boomers ages and retires.

The figures also are based on an assumption that there will be no spending increases or tax cuts--an unreal supposition in view of how Congress and the White House have reacted to the surpluses of the last three years.