A New Deadline for the Mideast

Hezbollah, the Lebanese guerrilla organization, is claiming victory in its battle to drive Israel out of southern Lebanon. It has a right to do so. Rising casualties have swung Israeli opinion strongly against continuing the 18-year-long occupation. This week the Cabinet unanimously backed Prime Minister Ehud Barak’s call to bring “an end to the tragedy” by withdrawing Israeli troops in July. Israel would prefer to do so as part of peace agreements with Lebanon and Syria, but if need be, Barak has made clear, it will act unilaterally.

Lebanon and Syria have long demanded an unconditional Israeli pullout. Now, as that prospect looms, they are crying foul. Syria keeps 30,000 troops in Lebanon and has used Hezbollah to put pressure on Israel. An Israeli exit wouldn’t end that option--Syria could still encourage Hezbollah to attack northern Israel--but it would make it vastly more dangerous. Israel has warned that attacks on its towns would trigger fearful retaliation. That presumably could include striking Syrian bases in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley.

The Lebanese government has similarly been put on the spot. Once Israel pulls out, the Beirut regime becomes responsible for security along the border. It’s unlikely to welcome that task, especially if Syria chooses to use Hezbollah for its own political ends. Lebanese President Emile Lahoud warned Wednesday that his regime cannot guarantee security along the Israeli border, though his spin was that the real threat to peace could come not from Hezbollah but from the unresolved plight of the 350,000 Palestinians who continue to live in Lebanese refugee camps.

Lebanon will be free to make peace with Israel only when an Israeli-Syrian agreement gives it the political cover to act. The optimistic words about an Israel-Syria deal that emanated from Jerusalem and Damascus a few months ago are no longer heard. Israel rightly insists on clear and firm commitments from Syria on security and normalization of relations before it undertakes to withdraw from the Golan Heights. Syria, on its part, says that only after Israel promises to leave the heights will Damascus commit to peace and normal relations.

If ever there was a need for the United States to be an active broker in Middle East peace efforts, this is the moment. Israel’s planned July pullout from Lebanon sets a deadline for progress. If that deadline goes unmet, a new and possibly more destructive cycle of violence could loom.