Local Housing Market Still on Blistering Pace

Ventura County’s frenzied housing market continued its climb in March, as sales and prices soared to record highs and analysts split on how long the boom can continue.

For the first quarter of 2002, sales were up nearly 23% compared with the year before, which was also a very good year. And prices were up $35,000 on a typical house for the quarter, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

“There’s a lot of sticker shock out there, but there’s also a buying frenzy,” DataQuick analyst John Karevoll said. “And this could go on for quite a while, through the summer, if not the fall.”

Local real estate agents, however, say they think the market is headed for a plateau, not a decline.

“There’s a feeling out here by most of the Realtors that we need an evening out and that there will be one,” said Peter Greer, president-elect of the Conejo Valley Assn. of Realtors.

“But the bubble isn’t going to burst. There’s just too much demand for housing.”

Sales have risen sharply this year despite an increasing shortage of available houses.

The price of a typical home reached an all-time high of $312,000 last month, up $28,000 since January and up $34,000 from March 2001. That median price reflects the point at which half the homes cost more and half less.

Home sales and prices are surging upward, Karevoll said, because of short supply, low interest rates and buyers’ fears that they’ll be left behind if they don’t purchase.

Despite high prices, homes are still relatively affordable when considering only a buyer’s monthly mortgage payments.

“In raw dollars, the mortgage costs are still roughly what they were during the boom 13 years ago because of low interest rates,” Karevoll said. “And that’s not counting 13 years of inflation. So there’s still a lot of elbow room for increases.”

Last month alone, Ventura County owners sold 1,614 houses and condominiums, up from 1,457 in March 2001 and nearly three times more than in the same month a decade ago, when the county was entering an eight-year slowdown.

Historically, sales and prices accelerate in March after a winter slowdown, but this winter also set records. And the momentum only seems to be increasing, according to real estate experts.

While DataQuick counts sales when they close escrow, a west county Realtors’ group that counts deals when they are first struck, reported that March sales were up 41% over February and a $500,000 median price for homes still on the market.

Jim Barroca, communications manager for the Ventura County Coastal Assn. of Realtors, pointed to two telltale signs of an accelerating market--homes selling in fewer days and an increase in sales despite a shortage of available houses.

Since April 1, the number of homes for sale by Realtors in Oxnard, Ventura, Camarillo, Santa Paula, Port Hueneme and Fillmore has dropped from 536 to 465, and the average number of days a house was on the market dropped from 56 to 45, Barroca said. The number of condos on the market dropped from 75 to 63.

“They’re selling faster and we have even less inventory, so that’s why the prices are higher,” Barroca said. “The Realtors are telling us all the time there’s just nothing out there for sale.”

Ventura broker Karen Campbell, president of the west county association, said she’s surprised by the strength of the market and questioned how long the rise will continue.

“I’ve had several conversations in the last week, and everybody is just amazed at the prices, and wondering how much longer it is going to go up,” Campbell said.

“I don’t know how the economy in our area is going to support these prices.”

Houses are selling so fast, often with multiple bids above the asking price, that some agents are not listing new properties with the association’s multiple listing service, she said.

“Now we’re seeing these office exclusives,” Campbell said. “There are 35 or 40 more homes on the market that you wouldn’t even know about if you didn’t know the listing agent.”

The unprecedented run-up worries Campbell.

“Pretty soon we’re going to be out of housing that people can afford, so where are the workers of our communities going to live?” she said.

Greer, a Thousand Oaks agent and association leader, said he thinks the market will balance itself out in coming months. For now, the average Conejo Valley house is on the market only 45 days, compared with 84 a year ago. And listings are down to about 550, far below the usual level.

“Real estate is cyclical,” Greer said. “We are actually just now seeing the impact of many, many years when the market was down.”

Yet, the scorching home sales market hits hard at the backbone of the community, Greer said.

“We’re finding we don’t have homes to meet the needs of the entry-level and workforce people,” he said. “In other words, our firefighters, our policemen, our teachers. They start at under $40,000 a year, and they have to live somewhere else.”

About one-third of county households can afford to buy a home today, compared with about one-fifth a decade ago.

Yet Karevoll said that his analysis of homebuyer profiles shows that a typical buyer is not yet stretching beyond the benchmark 33% of income to make mortgage payments.

“As counterintuitive as it may sound, there really are no immediate signs of distress in the market,” Karevoll said. “Default rates are still very low and there is no shift by buyers to risky types of loans.

“There will be a slowdown,” he said. “But it won’t happen for a while.”

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*--* March Home Sales Median prices for March home sales in Ventura County from 1988 to 2002 Year Sales Price 1988 1,555 $172,000 1989 1,509 $220,000 1990 838 $224,000 1991 682 $208,000 1992 674 $214,000 1993 618 $202,000 1994 986 $186,000 1995 799 $188,000 1996 936 $189,000 1997 883 $197,000 1998 1,083 $211,000 1999 1,351 $239,000 2000 1,584 $269,000 2001 1,457 $278,000 2002 1,614 $312,000 Source: DataQuick Information Systems

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*--* Ventura County Home Sales by ZIP Code March 2001 March 2002 City ZIP Code Sales Median Price Sales Median Price Camarillo 93010 85 $320,000 100 $315,000 Camarillo 93012 79 $278,500 73 $320,000 Fillmore 93015 27 $230,000 26 $249,000 Moorpark 93021 81 $361,000 116 $352,000 Oak Park 91377 37 $368,000 61 $352,500 Oak View 93022 18 $251,000 6 $278,750 Ojai 93023 26 $285,000 34 $372,000 Oxnard 93030 128 $230,000 123 $288,000 Oxnard 93033 73 $167,000 77 $213,000 Oxnard 93035 60 $245,000 53 $292,500 Port Hueneme 93041 41 $160,000 58 $206,500 Santa Paula 93060 31 $175,000 33 $214,750 Simi Valley 93063 146 $268,750 112 $300,000 Simi Valley 93065 165 $260,500 168 $279,500 Thousand Oaks 91320 114 $372,000 120 $404,000 Thousand Oaks 91360 65 $274,000 68 $323,000 Thousand Oaks 91361 20 $465,000 29 $422,500 Thousand Oaks 91362 75 $345,000 98 $416,500 Ventura 93001 51 $196,000 50 $258,000 Ventura 93003 74 $257,000 100 $311,500 Ventura 93004 38 $275,000 68 $316,250 Countywide 1,457 $278,000 1,614 $312,000 Source: DataQuick Information Systems

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