Time Running Out for Big Three Undecideds

With just three days left to enter the governor’s race, three of the strongest potential candidates are locked in an odd dance, with each waiting to see what the others do before deciding whether to jump into the campaign to succeed Gov. Gray Davis.

For actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein and former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan, the timing is crucial, the calculations deep. If one stays out, the chances improve that another can win. If one gets in, the odds sweeten that another will stay out.

The standoff is due to end by 5 p.m. Saturday, the deadline for candidates to run.

“This is the scene at the OK Corral, right before the first cowboy grabs his gun,” said Dan Schnur, a Republican political consultant. “They’re all standing in the corral with their fingers hovering just above their weapons. And as soon as the first person draws, bullets will start flying in every direction.”

None of the big three can afford to make a decision independently of the other, analysts say.

If Schwarzenegger were to run, he would appeal to some of the same voters -- moderate Republicans and some Democrats -- who would be Riordan’s natural base. Rather than cannibalize each other’s vote, Riordan and Schwarzenegger have spent most of the last week apparently working out a handoff in which one would bow out, but not until the other is ready to run.

Schwarzenegger is expected to announce his final decision this afternoon in Burbank at a taping of “The Tonight Show With Jay Leno.”

“He hasn’t given me final word, but he seems to me to be leaning against” running, said George Gorton, Schwarzenegger’s political consultant.

If Schwarzenegger bows out and Riordan gets in, the former mayor could pose an attractive alternative to Davis. That, in turn, could ratchet up Democratic pressure on Feinstein to enter a race she has said she does not plan to run in order to keep the governor’s office out of Republican hands.

“The existence of a highly credible moderate Republican accelerates the conversation about a Democratic alternative on the ballot,” said Ben Austin, a political consultant who has worked for Riordan and for former President Clinton.

But there is another consideration. Though they are from different parties, Riordan and Feinstein are old allies. Each has endorsed the other in past elections. They have shared political consultants in the past. Would two old dinner companions be comfortable squaring off in an election?

“The political combinations and permutations that result from this are pretty mind-boggling,” Austin said.

Then there is Davis. Though his support in polls hovers in the 20% range, the governor is a resilient political figure who has been moving quickly in recent days to keep fellow Democrats off the ballot, raise millions for the campaign and repair a political base that has been damaged by recurring California crises.

“In the next 72 hours, the governor has a real opportunity to show that he’s built some political momentum and he’s willing to fight for causes that mainstream Democrats and swing voters believe in,” Austin said. “If he can do that, he can forestall a Feinstein candidacy or any other big-name Democrat.”

Davis got a lift Tuesday when the governing body of the AFL-CIO voted unanimously in Chicago to endorse him and oppose the Republican-led effort to recall him from office.

The union resolution pledged labor support to Davis but didn’t offer specifics about the crucial issue of money. Davis has asked the unions to put up $10 million -- half of what he says he needs for his campaign.

In an interview Tuesday, AFL-CIO President John Sweeney said financial support would be provided by both member unions and the national labor organization.

The AFL-CIO resolution and the California Labor Federation also made a blunt appeal for party unity: “We call on all state leaders in the Democratic Party to stand united with the governor, and stay off the recall ballot,” the AFL-CIO resolution said.

At an event in Los Angeles on Tuesday, Davis told reporters and a crowd of about 100 onlookers that all nine Democratic presidential candidates had signed a letter strongly opposing the recall. Davis said he was pleased to have won the support of the AFL-CIO nationally and said he looked forward to labor “providing a good deal of resources” for his anti-recall campaign.

“They do not want to go backward,” he said.

“Don’t feel sorry for me,” he said at one point, expressing confidence that Californians would be fair. “I trust they will make the right decision.”

Not terribly liked by the state’s Democratic establishment, Davis faces the challenge of coaxing officials with whom he’s had chilly relations to stay off the ballot, rally behind him and oppose the recall. Results seem mixed.

Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, who recently conceded that he has gone months without even talking to Davis, said in an interview yesterday:

“Every one of us are opposed to the recall. We think it’s being used in the wrong way. It was never meant to be used as a popularity contest.

“This is clearly a perverse use of the recall process, and we’re hoping the voters will understand that and will make sure that they’ll come out and oppose this recall,” he said.

California’s Democratic junior senator, Barbara Boxer, also voiced opposition to the recall. Yet in a stop at Chapman Elementary School in Chico, she offered something less than an unequivocal endorsement of Davis.

Boxer counseled a close examination of the polls and urged consideration of a “backup strategy” of having a Democratic candidate on the ballot as a potential successor to Davis.

Like Bustamante, the senator ruled herself out as a potential candidate, but she spoke highly of Feinstein. “We have a deep bench,” Boxer said. “I’m not sitting on it.... I will say that Sen. Feinstein is absolutely part of that bench.”

Boxer said that although Davis can beat the recall, she is studying polls daily that show the recall is leading.

“This recall is a disastrous precedent,” Boxer said. “The strategy of getting together to make the case that this is a precedent that shouldn’t begin is the right strategy. However, as I’ve said, you never totally box yourself in. In a situation like this, you keep looking at the polls, and if we have to have to a backup strategy, we ought to decide that.”

Meanwhile, as the deadline nears, the ballot is starting to fill up.

State Sen. Tom McClintock (R-Thousand Oaks) filed papers Tuesday establishing his candidacy.

In front of a horde of cameras, McClintock -- one of the Legislature’s most consistent conservatives, particularly on issues of spending -- submitted 100 signatures and a check for $3,500 to the Ventura County elections office.

“This state is in bad need of an overhaul,” said McClintock, 47. “That’s what this election is all about: changing the direction of California.”

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Times staff writers Nancy Vogel, Dan Morain, Michael Finnegan, James Rainey and Jenifer Ragland contributed to this report.