Sam Farmer’s NFL picks for Week 11

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Glantz-Culver (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record: 5-9; season 78-66 (.542). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the handicapped record would have been 7-7; season 68-76 (.472).

Baltimore at Carolina

Records: 6-3; 1-8.

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 704.

Line: Ravens by 10. O/U: 37.

QB Brian St. Pierre has been in the league eight seasons, which is good. But does he really want to get his first career start against the Ravens’ defense? Ravens 27, Panthers 13

Houston at N.Y. Jets

Records: 4-5; 7-2.

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Jets by 7. O/U: 45.

In giving up that Hail Mary at the end of the Jacksonville game, the Texans reminded everyone of just how bad their pass defense is. Jets 27, Texans 21

Buffalo at Cincinnati

Records: 1-8; 2-7.

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Bengals by 5. O/U: 44.

The Bengals have lost six in a row and can’t hang on to the football. Still, they should be able to hold off the one-win Bills at home. Bengals 24, Bills 21

Cleveland at Jacksonville

Records: 3-6; 5-4.

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Jaguars by 1. O/U: 43.

Colt McCoy is getting more confident by the week, and Peyton Hillis is rounding into one of the league’s best battering rams. Browns 21, Jaguars 20

Oakland at Pittsburgh

Records: 5-4; 6-3.

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Steelers by 7. O/U: 41.

The Raiders won’t catch the Steelers by surprise this year. This will be close, but the Steelers get the edge because they’re at home. Steelers 20, Raiders 13

Green Bay at Minnesota

Records: 6-3; 3-6.

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 709

Line: Packers by 3. O/U: 44.

Division games can produce strange results, but the rested Packers are in far better position to win this — final? — matchup against Brett Favre. Packers 30, Vikings 27

Detroit at Dallas

Records: 2-7; 2-7.

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Cowboys by 6. O/U: 46.

Could it be? Yes, the Cowboys finally will win a home game. The Lions have lost 25 in a row on the road and don’t have Matthew Stafford. Cowboys 28, Lions 20

Washington at Tennessee

Records: 4-5; 5-4.

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Titans by 7. O/U: 44.

It’s hard to shake off a horrendous performance like the Redskins had against Philadelphia. Just ask Denver, which also gave up 59. Titans 24, Redskins 20

Arizona at Kansas City

Records: 3-6; 5-4.

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Chiefs by 8. O/U: 44.

Even though they’re suddenly struggling, the Chiefs are in better shape than the Cardinals, who have lost four in a row and are 1-4 on the road. Chiefs 24, Cardinals 17

Seattle at New Orleans

Records: 5-4; 6-3.

When: Sunday, 1 p.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Saints by 11. O/U: 44.

Watch for the Saints to give Pete Carroll a heavy dose of Reggie Bush in this one. New Orleans has been lying in wait. Saints 34, Seahawks 13

Atlanta at St. Louis

Records: 7-2; 4-5.

When: Sunday, 1 p.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Falcons by 3. O/U: 43.

The Rams are hard to beat at home. The Falcons are just further along in their development, though, and have too many offensive weapons. Falcons 23, Rams 21

Tampa Bay at San Francisco

Records: 6-3; 3-6.

When: Sunday, 1 p.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 715.

Line: 49ers by 3. O/U: 41.

The Buccaneers are a promising young team. Hard to ignore they are 1-11 in San Francisco and 2-23 in regular-season games in California. 49ers 21, Buccaneers 17

Indianapolis at New England

Records: 6-3; 7-2.

When: Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 716.

Line: Patriots by 3. O/U: 50.

The Patriots’ offensive line is playing great, and Tom Brady is too tough at home for the battered Colts. Patriots 30, Colts 28

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia

Records: 6-3; 6-3.

When: Sunday, 5:15 p.m.

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Eagles by 3. O/U: 48.

The combination of Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson will test the limits of any defense, including New York’s. Eagles 24, Giants 21

Denver at San Diego

Records: 3-6; 4-5.

When: Monday, 5:30 p.m.

TV: ESPN.

Line: Chargers by 10. O/U: 50.

The Broncos are too erratic, and this is the time of year the Chargers begin to hit their stride. Philip Rivers should have a big game. Chargers 35, Broncos 21